Counting on forests and accounting for forest contributions in national climate change actions Working Paper 47

This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union (EuropeAid/ENV/2004-81719). The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union. The participation of various national stakeholders made the study possible. The contributions by staff and students of the Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation project were highly valuable. Center for International Forestry Research CIFOR advances human wellbeing, environmental conservation and equity by conducting research to inform policies and practices that affect forests in developing countries. CIFOR is one of 15 centres within the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). CIFOR's headquarters are in Bogor, Indonesia. It also has offices in Asia, Africa and South America.

This paper constitutes a meta-analysis of the first national communications submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in which important climate risks and opportunities for using forest to alleviate these risks were identified.Gap analyses were carried out in seven case study countries in central America (Costa Rica, Honduras, Nicaragua), west Africa (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali) and southeast Asia (Indonesia), which form part of the Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA) project of the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) and Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación y Enseñanza (CATIE).
In addition, the outline for the second national communication to the UNFCCC was reviewed on how forest information could be used to address and overcome some of the gaps identified in the first national communications.As a case study, similar analysis on the use of forest was conducted on the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) for Burkina Faso.
Although forest is a common theme, there are distinct similarities and differences in the role of forest in the seven countries.In all the countries, forests play an important role in national inventories of greenhouse gases by absorbing carbon dioxide throughout the growth stages.Additionally, forests are globally important as regulating mechanisms in the hydrological cycle.Regional similarities are evident in central American countries in the roles forests play in Summary contributing to hydroelectric activity and in regulating the supply of potable water.There are distinct regional differences between central America, Indonesia and west Africa in both the climate risks and the use of forest.west African countries, for example, are less vulnerable to storms and the resulting deluge-induced inland floods experienced in central America and Indonesia.Land stability as a function of forest management is therefore emphasised in central America and Indonesia.The main message is that forest is important to all seven countries for climate change adaptation.However, each country has unique forms of vulnerability that shape its use of forest goods and services.Thus, the unique context of each country must be considered when formulating climate-change adaptation policies.
The analysis of the NAPA in Burkina Faso highlights the significant and diverse roles that forests play in climate change adaptation.The majority of the NAPA priority projects identified in Burkina Faso are forest based.Thus, forest constitutes an important entry point for NAPA implementation, and success will require measures that enhance forest adaptive capacity.Overall, the full potentials of the use of forest are not strongly emphasised in the national documents on climate change.
An overall conclusion is that climate change adaptation in tropical countries requires substantial information on forests, which must be timely and accurate, and that needs to be integrated into an adaptive management policy framework.

C
limate change is the biggest risk to stable functioning of the Earth system, and ecosystems play critical roles in mitigation of and adaptation to climate change.Ocean and forest ecosystems absorb roughly half of global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions (Schimel et al. 1996).Changes in temperature affect the rate of ecosystem processes, and elevated levels of carbon dioxide increase the rate of photosynthesis and reduce transpiration (Field et al. 1995;Sellers et al. 1996).Ecosystems are thus an integral part of global climatic processes.There is a dynamic series of feedback relationships that must be considered from an ecosystem perspective when crafting climate-change mitigation or adaptation policies.
Society relies on ecosystems for various goods such as food and timber, regulating services such as water purification, and cultural/aesthetic value (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005).Climate change and greater climate variability-as well as associated disturbances such as floods, droughts and wildfireswill affect the capability of ecosystems to provide necessary goods and services (IPCC 2007).The effects of climate change on ecosystem service provision will differ across regions; for example, there have been high impacts on tropical grasslands and savannahs and low impacts on temperate grasslands (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005).Forest systems globally are responsible for 57% of water runoff and about 4.6 billion people rely on forests for all or part of their water supply.Biodiversity in tropical forest systems is affected by many different drivers like land use change, pollution and overexploitation, all of which are increasing (in most cases rapidly).Deforestation in the tropics has occurred at an average rate in excess of 12 million hectares per year since the late 1980s.The various changes and drivers of change are affecting the ecosystems services provided by tropical forests (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005).
There is a compelling financial reason for addressing climate change using methods that simultaneously sequester CO 2 , the principal greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, safeguard other carbon pools from emitting CO 2 and also contribute to the adaptation of society to the impacts. 1  Unfortunately, the nature and scope of reporting in some developing countries could pose major constraints to assessing global gains made in climate change response, and how best to integrate the roles of tropical forest into national planning strategies.This paper presents an analysis of the first national communications submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat by selected tropical countries of west Africa, central America and southeast Asia.The countries were selected on the basis of their participation in the Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA) project undertaken by the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) and Centro Agronómico Tripcal de Investigación y Enseñanza (CATIE).These 'first communications' serve as a review of the use of forests in national climate change reporting.The paper also uses Burkina Faso as a case study to examine the representation of forests in National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) as mandated for least developed countries.This study demonstrates ways of using TroFCCA research and other sources of forest-based research findings to supplement the information and materials that need to be incorporated into national communications and other climate change reports of participating countries (e.g., NAPA).TroFCCA research findings are normally shared with international institutions such as the UNFCCC and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The TroFCCA framework (Figure 1) was consistently used as the standard approach in each country for connecting biophysical processes to the ecosystem level, to the landscape level and to the socioeconomic and policy levels.Country-based analyses, however, recognised the contextual differences that required specific adjustments in the application of the methodologies.For example, in Indonesia and Nicaragua, regional models and geospatial analysis were used at the national level to determine areas of vulnerability and risk to climate impacts.In Burkina Faso, Ghana and Mali, regional studies with direct community involvement were more widely used.
The study commenced with a review of the first national communications submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat as mandated for every Party to the Kyoto Protocol.The risks of climate change as recognised by the different countries involved in the study were summarised.The roles of forests in the response to climate change (as stated in this summary document) were highlighted in order to analyse the strengths and

Study approach
weaknesses in forest use in relation to the identified climate risks.An outline was made of the use of research information from the TroFCCA project in response to the climate risks identified.Following the situation analysis of each country, some recommendations were made for the integration of forest-ecosystem research information into the adaptation strategies (a) in the second national communications to the UNFCCC, (b) in national development policies, and (c) shared with other international institutions.There was also a probe into the NAPA process formulated by least developed countries, using the case of Burkina Faso to examine how forest ecosystem goods and services that contribute to sustaining community livelihoods are reflected in and integrated into the NAPA.Being landlocked in the centre of West Africa, where average annual rainfall rarely exceeding 1000 mm, and with more than 86% of its total population relying on forest ecosystems for their livelihoods, Burkina Faso presents an example for evaluating the contribution of forest ecosystem goods and services in national climate-change adaptation policies.

National development policy
Adaptation policy TroFCCA research on forest fire frequency and impacts, vulnerability to landslides, impacts on water resources, etc., can provide information for adaptation measures that benefit mitigation of climate change using forest ecosystems (Santoso 2006(Santoso , 2007a, b), b).

Society level
Climate change mitigation and adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and poverty alleviation are all fundamentally connected and rely in part on valid and well-formulated ecosystem research.The vulnerability of forest therefore affects both mitigation and adaptation and, consequently, biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation actions.Accurate data for vulnerability assessment is crucial for climate change policy.This makes it useful and efficient in linking policies that relate to climate change adaptation as well as measures for poverty alleviation and biodiversity conservation (Santoso 2007b

Discussion
The findings of this report demonstrate that there are distinct regional characteristics that must inform climate-change adaptation policy in each TroFCCA country.In central America

Mali
• production of sorghum/millet, maize and cotton agricultural products may be negatively affected • availability of potable water resources • vitality and abundance of fish may be negatively affected • health of population may be negatively affected République du Mali Ministère de l'Equipement de l'Amanegement du Territoire de l'Environnement et de l'Urbanisme & Ministère de l'Education (2000)

Costa Rica
• stress to supply of potable water • hydroelectric output may be reduced by land degradation, leading to siltation as well as reduced water supply • ecosystem states at risk due to climate variability and change República de Costa Rica Ministerio de Ambiente y Energía ( 2001)

Honduras
• exposure of populations in dry areas to extreme hunger and disease • higher frequency of forest fires • high-impact precipitation events • Burkina Faso's different biogeographical regions (Sahelian, Sub-Sahelian, North Soudanian and South Soudanian) must be understood from a scientific standpoint to see how climate change will affect ecosystems and societies in these regions.TroFCCA research supports these efforts • Conversion of land for industrial cotton production in central south Burkina Faso has resulted in deforestation and displacement of farmers and pastoralists (CIFOR 2007).Adaptive management policies are necessary in these cases to respond to the cascading effects of land-use decisions.
Forest information and land-use studies from TroFCCA inform these policies

Ghana
• Water scarcity and its relation to resource use and adaptation is a key aspect of development policy for Ghana, and TroFCCA work on forests will help to inform decision making related to development policy (Gyampoh et al. 2008 Norte (Gonzales et al. 2007;Pérez et al. 2007a).TroFCCA-provided knowledge of forest function with respect to provision of ecosystem services such as water regulation and supply will assist with adaptive-management policy development (Locatelli 2006) Annex 2. TroFFCA and other research relevant to national adaptation activities

National circumstances
The guidelines state that the information on national circumstances provides the opportunity for detailing the national or, as relevant, regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances that serve as the basis for addressing issues relating to climate change.Information provided on national circumstances is critical for understanding a country's vulnerability, its capacity and its options for adapting to the adverse effects of climate change, as well as its options for addressing its GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions within the broader context of sustainable development.

National greenhouse gas inventories
The guidelines state that a national greenhouse gas inventory is a key element of the national communication.As an introduction, this section should include information on how inventory work is organized and carried out.

General description of steps taken or envisaged to implement the convention
Paragraph 25 of the guidelines states that: Each non-Annex I Party shall, in accordance with Article 12, paragraph 1 (b), communicate to the conference of the Parties a general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement the Convention, taking into account its common but differentiated responsibilities and specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances.

Measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change
Following the guidelines for the second national communication, The information in this section should include a description of activities, measures and programmes that are being undertaken or planned in the country to adapt to climate change.These activities, measures, and programmes should be regularly updated as financial, technical and data resources become available.

Measures to mitigate climate change
Articles 4.1 and 12.1 of the Convention commit Parties to develop national and, where appropriate, regional programmes and measures that will result in the mitigation of human-induced climate change.Such measures may either reduce the increase in greenhouse gas emissions (abatement) or increase terrestrial storage of carbon (sequestration).

Other information
This section of the guidelines request for the provision of other information considered relevant to the achievement of the objectives of the Convention.This information could include relevant national, social, economic, and environmental policies and activities geared towards the implementation of the Convention.

Constraints and gaps, and related financial technical and capacity needs
The second national communication requires, Taking into account Article 4, paragraph 7, and Article 4, paragraphs 3 and 5, of the Convention, the extent to which developing country Parties will effectively implement their commitment to communicate information will depend on the implementation by developed country Parties of their commitment under the Convention relating to financial resources and the transfer of technology.Accordingly it is important to include information on the constraints and gaps and the related financial, technical and capacity needs.
Annex 3. Specifications for the second national communication report to the UNFCCC Country assessment (Source: República de Costa Rica Minsterio de Ambiente y Energía 2001)

Climate-change risks linked to forest indicated in the report
• Water resources may be affected by climate variation and change within the three main water basins and will impact human populations.With an increase in precipitation of 10-15%, water runoff will increase by between 23.8 and 75.5%.Alternatively, a decrease in precipitation of 10-15% will results in 5-29% reduction in runoff.Changes to the water cycle will affect runoff, erosion, and sediment load, causing flooding • Impacts on the hydrological cycle will affect the hydroelectric supply capacity • Coastal zone of Costa Rica (1300 km of coastline) vulnerable to sea level rise.The coastline, which is primarily beaches in front of alluvial plains and salt marshes, will be vulnerable to the change in water level and a new equilibrium level will be reached.Residential areas such as in Puntarenas will be flooded 150-500 m from the original border • Agricultural productivity will be affected by climate change.Rice, bean, potato and coffee production will either be increased or decreased depending on changes in parameters and time of year with the changes in precipitation, temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration • Ecosystem stability is threatened by climate change.Three different climate scenarios showed an increase in pre-montane, wet and lower montane forests, whereas there was a consistent decrease in montane, tropical and rain forests.The density of life in rainforests is threatened by climate change

Costa Rica
Tropical forests fulfil these roles and are therefore invaluable in global efforts to address climate change.Yet the representation of tropical forests in global climate-change discussions falls short of 1. Introduction their full potential contributions.Although mitigation currently dominates the global discussions on climate change, tropical forests remain inseparable from tropical livelihoods and national development-thus, they have a fundamental role in adaptation in tropical regions.Unfortunately, climate change impacts are already affecting the integrity, functioning and provision of forest ecosystem goods and services (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005; IPCC 2007), which in turn affect the majority of rural households who derive their livelihoods from forests.This creates a double challenge of responding to climate change impacts on society and on their sources of livelihood.How these different roles and uses of forest are integrated into national planning and accounted for in global actions requires accurate reporting.Under the Kyoto Protocol and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), countries have a responsibility to show their progress in response to climate change.
) • TroFCCA work supports distributive and adaptive policy making linked to ecosystem research, which is an underlying requirement in west Africa.In Ghana, the connections between ecosystem function, climate-change impacts and land-use conflicts are examined through field research programmes.The results of these studies can inform adaptation and mitigation initiatives for climate change (CIFOR 2007) Mali • The synergies between degradation of forests and desertification augmented by climate change, as well as ecosystem resilience, must be understood.TroFCCA ecosystem research can support this (AMCE 2008) • TroFCCA work on the social use of ecosystems can inform forest policies that are adaptive to shocks of climate change (Forner et al. 2006) • Ecosystem function in Mali in relation to changing parameters such as water availability must be clearly understood in order to respond to climate change.The TroFCCA research forms a foundation for capacity for systematic monitoring of the environment and social factors Central America Costa Rica • Forests are integral in mitigating and adapting to climate-imposed risks to hydrological cycles.Research and understanding of how forests interact within water basins is critical to understanding how the effects of climate change on water systems will be observed.Additionally, impacts on hydroelectric supply can be understood by TroFCCA research on ecosystems (Leguia et al. 2008) • TroFCCA research on ecosystems, agroforestry and vulnerability to drought can help to create adaptive capacity with respect to climate variability and extreme weather events (Pérez et al. 2007b) Ecosystem change and adaptation to climate change is important to understanding how forests may change, as well as how different environmental parameters may contribute to ecosystem changes in various contexts.TroFCCA research on forest species change will inform this area (Cervi et al. 2007) Honduras • TroFCCA work on assessing the role of ecosystems in providing potable water in the droughtvulnerable western region will help deal with climate change risk (Najarro 2007) • TroFCCA work on analysing the contribution of ecosystems in the supply of hydroelectric power will help manage social and economic risks to climate change and variability (Coto 2006; Najarro 2007) • TroFCCA research on including ecosystems in adaptation policy will help conceptually link on-theground research with national sustainable-development policy (Pérez 2006) Nicaragua • Forests are integral in mitigating and adapting to climate-imposed risks to the hydroelectric industry.Research and understanding of how forests interact with the hydrological cycle, particularly in relation to watersheds, will inform adaptation policy (Leguía et al. 2007) • TroFCCA research on ecosystems, agroforestry and vulnerability to drought can help to create adaptive capacity with respect to climate variability and extreme weather events (Pérez et al. 2007a) • The supply of potable water is noted as an acute source of risk to regions such as San Pedro del Country assessment (Source: Republique du Mali Ministere d l'Equipement de l'Amanegement du Territoire de l'Environnement et de l'Urbanisme & Ministere de l'Education 2000) Climate-change risks linked to forest indicated in the report • Agricultural productivity of crops such as sorghum/millet, maize and cotton is at risk • Water resource availability for human consumption and irrigation is at risk • Human health and wellbeing are potentially affected by climate change impacts on water quality, food provision, and through potentially increased exposure to disease • Fish resources are at risk due to effects of climate change • Changes to land use and forestry are at risk due to climate change and variability • Biodiversity is at risk due to pressure on ecosystems imposed by climate change and variability Role of forests in the report in responding to national climate-change risks • Mali's national inventory of greenhouse gases shows that 10,828.88Gg of CO 2 is fixed by agriculture and land-use and land-cover change.Forest information is essential to understanding the mechanisms of re-growth, carbon fixation, and climate-change mitigation and adaptation.Additionally, information pertaining to human use of ecosystems such as pastoralism and the social use of carbon is important to having credible greenhouse-gas inventory data • Ecosystem function with respect to water availability is important for understanding potential effects of climate-change induced droughts.The history of drought in Mali shows that periods of prolonged drying can have effects on the persistence and resilience of vegetation in locations where human use of these ecosystems is critical • Forests cover 100 million ha in Mali.Within this domain there is a variety of land uses, including agroforestry, conserved areas and intensive forest-resources use.Information pertaining to the function and status of forests will assist with adaptation programmes, such as sustainable forest management, land restoration, and use of forests for alternative energy programmes such as biofuels Potential use of TroFCCA research and other sources of forest information in addressing the national climate risks • The synergies between degradation of forests and desertification exacerbated by climate change must be identified in Mali.The synergies between forest resilience and biodiversity must also be recognised.The degradation of forests exacerbates the negative effects of climate change and it also impacts desertification and biodiversity (AMCE 2008) • Integrated land-use planning and the design of adaptive policies for forest use are important in creating communities that are resilient to climate change.In Mali, land-use dynamics include large-scale industrial agriculture as well as small-scale pastoral land use.Rigid, top-down forest management policies have failed to address the changing needs of people reliant on ecosystems for livelihood products.TroFCCA work on the social use of ecosystems can inform forest policies that are adaptive to shocks of climate change (Forner et al. 2006) • Ecosystem function in Mali in relation to changing parameters such as water availability must be clearly understood in order to respond to climate change.Resilience of ecosystems to environmental and social forces is critical to establishing prudent climate-change adaptation policy.In order to achieve this, capacity for systematic monitoring of the environment and social factors is necessary Mali

Landscape level Ecosystem level Biophysical process level
(Nkem et al. 2007)arch outputs from the TroFCCA project have direct implications for climate-change adaptation policy.The results show regionally specific characteristics and national priorities based on social, scientific and economic factors(Nkem et al. 2007).Forest information can be used to explain the linkages between activities and policies related to climate change and other United Nations initiatives such as the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Millennium Development Goals.TroFCCA ecosystem research can be used to explain synergies in adaptation and mitigation objectives, and to provide information on how forests fit into development priorities.
Indonesia is particularly vulnerable to land instability and fires.Africa's primary source of vulnerability is the periodic shortage of potable water, which is exacerbated by deforestation and land use change.centralAmerica is vulnerable to high-energy storms and their amplified impacts due to unstable land, as well as shortages of water for human consumption and provision of hydroelectric energy.The principle uses of ecosystem information for climate-change adaptation policy for each TroFCCA country are shown in Annex 2. Following the guidelines provided by UNFCCC for climate change reporting by Non-Annex 1 Parties in their second national communication(UNFCCC  2004), it is important to emphasise some aspects that are linked to forests and how they could be addressed using forest information.Annex 3 lists examples of some aspects that are linked to forest under the different categories of reporting.Knowledge of ecosystem health and function is essential to clearly define how mitigation through programmes such as REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation plus co-benefits) may work and support adaptation.Adaptation is also dependent on understanding how forest ecosystems work and may respond to climatic or socioeconomic changes.In Indonesia, the major areas of impact of climate change are forest fires and landslides, which have severe implications on carbon stocks in standing forest and other carbon pools protected by forests.
(Lange 2003commendations for the second national communication report to the UNFCCC and perspectives on climate change mitigation and adaptation.The information from the TroFCCA project about how institutions and stakeholders have been brought together with government agencies serves as a good example of how such relationships could be created and used to formulate a common agenda.This demonstrates the need for information for the development of resilience in institutional relationships using a science-policy dialogue platform.Climate change will have negative effects on the provisioning and functioning of forest ecosystem goods and services.The NAPA of Burkina Faso cites four sectors-water, agriculture, livestock and forestry/biodiversity-as the most vulnerable to climate variability and change.These four sectors are interlinked and directly or indirectly depend on goods and services provided by forest ecosystems.The role of forest ecosystem goods and services is well understood and has been clearly recognised in the NAPA.However, there are still knowledge gaps in the understanding of direct and indirect benefits that communities obtain from forest ecosystems.This lack of a common understanding distorts policy and programme design, and at times hinders the development of cross-sectoral institutional alliances.Most stakeholders outside the forestry sector have little knowledge of the benefits that forest stakeholders derive from forest ecosystem goods and services(Lange 2003).
(Vignola 2005;Hernandez 2006so et al. 2008)ally comprises technology and industrial development, education of the population, health, and wellconstructed relationships with various stakeholders.Good relationships among the stakeholders are essential for communication and sharing of expertise 4. The work of TroFCCA on tropical forest ecosystem changes in response to climate change, and variability, can also be of use in conjunction with UN Conventions such as that on climate change, biodiversity, sustainable development, MDG etc. Poverty relief is linked to social, economic and environmental vulnerability in Nicaragua.By focusing on community vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, TroFCCA activities are relevant to the Millennium Development Goals on poverty alleviation and environmental sustainability, while also contributing to national capacity building and climate policies(Both Ends 2007).ecosystems(Locatellietal. 2008;Santoso et al. 2008).Similarly, TroFCCA research on changes in forest ecosystem and hydrological function in response to climate change and provision of ecosystem services(Vignola 2005;Hernandez 2006) are crucial in providing adequate adaptation response measures.energy storms.Monsoons and precipitation variability have negative impacts on terrain stability, posing risk to development.Conversely, periods of dryness contribute to a higher frequency of forest fires, resulting in destruction of property and risk to human health.
, vulnerability to highenergy storms is an acute risk resulting from climate change that, as shown with Hurricane Mitch in 1998, can have significant impacts on society.The role of forests in regulating water provision to society and the hydroelectric sector is a key issue in central America, and research focused on forests should address this.

Climate risks listed by each country in their first national communications to UNFCCC Region Country Ecosystems adaptation response
Annex 4. List of Burkina Faso NAPA priority projects in order of importance Source: Adapted from SP/CONEDD(2007)