A multi-stakeholder consultative process known as Participatory Prospective Analysis (PPA) proved successful at bringing stakeholders together to share information and explore steps to bring about desirable future scenarios for forest tenure in the Mount Kenya and Abedare forests in Kenya's highlands.
Of the 29 identified "forces of change", the participants identified five "drivers of change" in the region for the coming decade, namely: culture; public-private partnerships; the political environment and policy formulation; land tenure systems; and access to financial resources.
Participants then developed three potential future scenarios, based on various "states" of the identified drivers: one desirable and two undesirable.
The desirable scenario was characterized by a supportive government, strong public-private partnerships, a clear land tenure system, highly-valued natural resources and strong community awareness and participation.
In the undesirable scenarios, communities were alienated from the forest resource through privatization and/or poor governance. This resulted in increased tension and illegal exploitation of the forest, as well as livelihood losses for forest-dependent communities.
At the end of the PPA process, participants devised action plans to help bring about the desirable scenario and avoid undesirable outcomes. Suggested measures included civic education on environmental issues, capacity-building for stronger public-private partnerships, clarification of land tenure, and the promotion of environmentally-friendly income-generating activities. These plans were presented back to stakeholders for feedback at a later meeting, and then adopted.