Reference levels (RLs) are key points that determine the starting point of carbon credits payment within REDD+ framework. This work approaches the RLs using remote sensing data and analysis. Objectives of this study are: 1) mapping of forest cover change and 2) predicting carbon emissions/removals as a basis of RLs assessment. Forest cover change was estimated using national land cover map from the Ministry of Forestry in Indonesia. Combined with social economic parameters, deforestation drivers were analyzed to predict current/future deforestation. We elaborate available biomass data for predicting carbon density of each forest type and carbon biomass dynamics between 2000-2009. Hence, Riau Province was selected to conduct more detailed study. Relationship between deforestation, forest degradation, and carbon emissions/removals in this province were discussed.