If you would like to explore some of these landscape models constructed, you can download some examples here. However, to view the model you will need to have STELLA software installed on your computer. If you don’t have this software but do want to explore the model, you can freely download either a safe-disabled trial version of STELLA, which will time out in 30 days, or you can download a safe-disabled version that does not time out with the following link: http://www.iseesystems.com/community/downloads/STELLA/STELLADemo.aspx
The Dzanga-Sangha model: Exploring forest management options and their implications for wildlife and the local economy
In the heart of the Congo Basin lies the tropical forest landscape Dzanga-Sangha in southwest Central African Republic. The landscape consists of a national park surrounded by production forest and smaller sections of the forest designated for community hunting and conversion to agriculture. Several logging companies used to extract timber from the production forest, but the last one ceased operations in 2004 leaving the logging concession open to new management. The landscape supports mammal species including forest elephant, gorilla and bongo and attracts some eco-tourists. At the same time, this landscape is a scene of dire poverty.
An integrated conservation and development project is working in the landscape. Project team members helped construct a participatory model to explore different management scenarios for the production forest and their implications for wildlife and the local economy.
Three scenarios have been explored:
- ‘Predatory logging’, when logging companies exploit the area with no long-term commitment to the landscape
- Sustainable exploitation by a certified logging company
- Conservation concession with no commercial timber harvesting.
The Dzanga Sangha model can be downloaded with the following link: The Dzanga Sangha model.STM ( zip format, 73KB)
The Cameroon model – Exploring the possibilities of success for an ICDP in the Congo Basin
In South East Cameroon, located in the heart of the Congo Basin, the landscape “SE TOU” exists of a combination of national parks, surrounded by forest concessions, safari hunting zones and agro-forestry areas. The area has outstanding assemblages of forest megafauna, including forest elephant, western lowland gorilla, chimpanzee and bongo. The landscape is sparsely populated with many different ethnic groups, which can be roughly characterised as Baka-pygmies (mostly hunter-gatherers), and indigenous and migrant Bantu (mostly farmers and fishermen). 70% of the population lives below US$1 per person per day and poaching is the main conservation threat in the region. Integrated Conservation and Development Projects (ICDP) seek to integrate efforts to alleviate poverty and conserve biodiversity. We built a model to explore the probabilities of such a project to reach its dual goals by simulating different strategies (different ways of spending the ICDP budget). The model showed that bad governance is a huge obstruction for ICDPs to be succesfull.
The Cameroon model can be downloaded with the following link: Cameroon ICDP.STM ( zip format, 483KB)
The Ghana model – exploring payments for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) as an option to local farmers
Wasa Amenfi West is a district in South-West Ghana mainly covered with cocoa agroforest though 25% is still covered with natural forest (secondary and old growth). Cocoa is the most important cash crop in Ghana and the remaining forest –excluding 12% being located in forest reserves- is most likely to be converted into cocoa at a high rate. The district has a population density of about 55 people/km2 and roughly 85% of this population is rural and involved in cocoa production. We constructed a system dynamics model for this district to explore the likely impact of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) payments on local farmers. REDD strategies could potentially conserve forests and impact the poor. Participatory modeling was carried out with a diverse range of stakeholders to explore REDD payments as an option to local farmers.
The Ghana model can be downloaded with the following link: Ghana model.STM ( zip format, 40KB)
More information the Ghana model's: Sandker, M., Bruce M. Campbell and N. Collier. A model to explore REDD payments in an agroforest landscape in South-West Ghana. e-file: English (PDF, 119KB)
The Malinau model – Simulating the arrival of oil palm investments in an East-Kalimantan district
Malinau is an East-Kalimantan district still mostly covered with pristine tropical rainforest. However, with the increasing global demand for biofuels it seems nothing can stop oil palm to be planted in Malinau in the next decade. We built a simulation model for the Malinau landscape which explores the impact of the clearing of 500,000 ha forest on Malinau’s forest cover, local economy and on migration. This 500,000 ha is about 70% of the total forest area in Malinau labelled for conversion. In Indonesia, all too often though oil palm is a guise for timber speculation, therefore we also explored the scenario of 500,000 ha forest being cleared in the name of oil palm but no subsequent planting taking place and the consequences of that scenario for forest cover, local economy and migration.
The Malinau model can be downloaded with the following link: Malinau.STM ( zip format, 372KB)
More information on the situation in Malinau district and a discussion of the model’s results are given in the on-line available article: Sandker, M., A. Suwarno, and B. M. Campbell. 2007. Will forests remain in the face of oil palm expansion? Simulating change in Malinau, Indonesia. Ecology and Society 12(2): 37. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss2/art37/ (online)